Canada’s resale housing market is expected to regain some forward momentum in 2026, following a stop-start recovery that took shape over the back half of last year, according to the latest forecast from the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA).
Updated on January 15, CREA’s outlook revises expectations for 2026 and extends the national forecast through 2027, painting a picture of a market that is stabilizing rather than surging. While 2025 ultimately proved slower than initially anticipated — weighed down by economic uncertainty tied to U.S. tariff threats — much of that softness was concentrated early in the year. Beginning in April, sales activity rallied, climbing 12% by August before settling into a holding pattern through year-end.
That mid-year rebound is expected to resume in 2026, supported largely by pent-up demand, particularly among first-time buyers who have been sidelined for much of the past four years. CREA notes that while interest rates haven’t declined as much as many prospective buyers hoped, they have likely fallen far enough to restore a degree of attainability. The Bank of Canada’s October 29, 2025 signal — that rates were likely as low as they were going to get — is expected to further encourage borrowers who had been waiting on the sidelines.
Nationally, CREA forecasts that 494,512 residential properties will change hands via MLS® Systems in 2026, representing a 5.1% increase from 2025. British Columbia and Ontario are expected to lead that recovery, with sales in both provinces forecast to rise by more than 8%, reflecting the greater room for improvement following deeper slowdowns.
Elsewhere, gains are expected to be more modest, as activity in many provinces is already running closer to historical norms and supply remains constrained.
The national average home price is forecast to increase 2.8% in 2026 to $698,881. Price growth is expected to be more subdued in B.C., Alberta, Ontario, and Nova Scotia, while Saskatchewan, Quebec, and Newfoundland and Labrador are forecast to see comparatively stronger gains. Even so, CREA anticipates a notable cooling in those hotter markets, with price growth slowing from the 6% - 8% range in 2025 to between 3% and 6% in 2026.
Looking ahead to 2027, national home sales are forecast to rise another 3.5% to 511,966, again led by B.C. and Ontario. Average prices are expected to edge up 2.3% year-over-year to $714,991, marking the seventh consecutive year the national average has hovered near the $700,000 mark.
CREA will release its next quarterly forecast on April 16, 2026.
